Climate Change Increases the Risk of Megadroughts

If we do not take the appropriate actions to stave off climate change the number of megadroughts will significantly increase.

New research has quantified the risks from climate change and provided insights into the prospects of megadroughts in the US and around the world. The study is titled, “Assessing the risk of persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data.”

The scientists from Cornell, the University of Arizona, and the US Geological Survey came to the shocking conclusion that in places like the southwestern US, “the risk of a decade-scale megadrought in the coming century is at least 80 percent, and may be higher than 90 percent in certain areas.”

Extrapolating data from this study shows that there are equal or higher risks of megadroughts in the rest of the world than the estimates provided for the US Southwest. This means that in the subtropics (e.g., in the Mediterranean, western and southern Africa, Australia, and much of South America) the likelihood of megadrought is more than 90 percent.

These findings are considered to be highly conservative because they do not factor in temperature increases which are known to increase drought effects. The actual likelihood of drought when temperature increases are factored into the equation may be closer to 100 percent.

This data corroborates a 2012 study from the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This study concluded that without significant emissions reduction most of southern Europe and about half of the United States will experience persistent extreme drought.

We are already seeing severe droughts in California, Brazil, Australia, and other places around the world. We know that entire civilizations have been ended by megadroughts. The current situation and the looming threat of megadroughts make efforts to significantly reduce emissions that much more urgent.